New Delhi, 5th June
Aditya Amitabh Trivedii -

In the trends for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA, led by the BJP, is seen securing a majority with leads in over 296 seats. The Congress-led INDIA coalition, however, is performing significantly better compared to previous elections, leading in 228 seats. Despite this, it is evident from the trends that the BJP alone cannot surpass the magic number of 272 seats required to form the government. This necessitates the BJP to rely on crucial allies such as TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar for forming Modi Government 3.0. Thus, it becomes essential for the BJP not only to maintain these alliances but also to keep these allies content.

Prior to the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had made it clear that the Uniform Civil Code would be a core agenda in Modi Government 3.0, with Uttarakhand already implementing it under a BJP government. It was expected that the BJP would prioritize this issue upon returning to power. However, its allies could pose challenges for the BJP in this regard. Both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu might pressure the BJP to reconsider this decision. Another significant agenda for the BJP is 'One Nation, One Election', for which a committee has already submitted its report, with 32 out of 47 political parties in agreement. JD(U) and TDP could act as obstacles within the NDA coalition on this front as well.

Additionally, Bihar's Chief Minister Nitish Kumar could pressurize Modi Government 3.0 to conduct a nationwide caste-based census, considering the substantial influence of backward castes, Dalits, and Muslim voters in Bihar. Nitish has already conducted such a census in Bihar and has long demanded a nationwide census. Other opposition parties, including the Congress and RJD, also support this demand.

Nitish Kumar has been advocating for Bihar to receive special state status for years. Even before joining the BJP, Nitish had campaigned for this from the central government. He had even stated his intention to launch a campaign in Bihar for this cause. Similarly, Chandrababu Naidu could demand a special package for Andhra Pradesh. These leaders are likely to leverage their demands to exert pressure on Modi Government 3.0.

In the event that the BJP does not achieve an outright majority, Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu may push for key ministries in the central government. Following the 2019 elections, Nitish Kumar refused to join the BJP-led government, although a minister from his party, RCP, was later included, and JD(U) was given the position of Deputy Chairman in the Rajya Sabha. With the Bihar assembly elections proposed for October-November 2025, JD(U) might demand significant ministries from the BJP. Additionally, Chandrababu Naidu’s party, with 18 elected MPs, might also seek crucial ministries in exchange for their support to the government.