NewDelhi, August 30, 2025 - RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat recently issued a warning: India must avoid Japan’s demographic path. His concern stems from the fact that Japan, despite being one of the most technologically advanced nations, is facing an unprecedented population crisis. In just two years, Japan has lost nearly a million people — a decline that threatens its economy, society, and very existence as a nation.

Bhagwat’s appeal is rooted in numbers. He urged Indian families to have at least three children, stressing that a fertility rate of 2.1 is the minimum required to maintain population stability. Anything lower, he warned, would push societies toward “slow extinction.” His remarks also echo global voices like Elon Musk, who has repeatedly called falling birth rates “the most dangerous problem the world faces.”

The Japan Problem

Japan’s situation has become a global cautionary tale. Nearly 30% of its population is now above 65, and projections suggest the country’s population could dip below 100 million by 2056, down from a peak of 128 million just 15 years ago. The fertility rate currently stands at 1.2, one of the lowest in the world.

Births have fallen below 800,000 a year, while marriages — still strongly tied to childbearing in Japanese society — are at historic lows. Combined with one of the world’s highest life expectancies, the balance between retirees and the working-age population is collapsing. This has led to acute labour shortages, economic slowdown, and immense pressure on healthcare and social security systems.

Why Japan Reached This Point

Japan’s crisis is not simply about numbers; it is about social structures. After World War II, Japan experienced a baby boom as optimism and family life thrived. But by the 1970s, fertility rates began to decline. Women gained more education and independence but were still burdened with traditional expectations of motherhood.

The workplace culture — long hours, rigid hierarchies, and inflexible policies — left little room for women to balance careers with family. Men, meanwhile, faced rising job insecurity, economic pressure, and high living costs in urban centers. These challenges pushed many to delay or forgo marriage and children altogether.

Despite government interventions such as cash incentives, subsidized childcare, and extended parental leave, deep-rooted social and cultural barriers have prevented meaningful recovery.

The Warning for India

While India is still considered a young and populous nation, signs of demographic decline are already visible. Fertility rates in several southern states, including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh, have dropped below replacement levels. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has repeatedly warned against “repeating Japan’s mistake.”

Bhagwat’s remarks reflect a fear that India may lose its demographic advantage before it has fully leveraged it for economic growth. If fertility continues to fall, India could face labour shortages, economic stagnation, and increased strain on welfare systems, just as Japan does today.

The Bigger Picture

Japan’s example proves that demographic crises don’t happen overnight — they unfold over decades, shaped by cultural norms, economic insecurity, and the gap between aspirations and realities. Once population decline begins, reversing it is nearly impossible.

For India, the message is clear: safeguarding its demographic strength requires a balance between modern aspirations and social stability. Bhagwat’s call for three children may be controversial, but his warning highlights a real risk — one India cannot afford to ignore.